Kevin Trenberth downgrades global warming to just a ‘hotspot’ that moves ‘unpredictably’

Kevin Trenberth told ClimateProgress’ Joe Romm:

We can confidently say that the risk of drought and heat waves has gone up and the odds of a hot spot somewhere on the planet have increased but the hotspot moves around and the location is not very predictable. This year perhaps it is East Asia: China, or earlier Siberia? It has been much wetter and cooler in the US (except for SW), whereas last year the hot spot was the US. Earlier this year it was Australia (Tasmania etc) in January (southern summer). We can name spots for all summers going back quite a few years: Australia in 2009, the Russian heat wave in 2010, Texas in 2011, etc.

Similarly with risk of high rains and floods: They are occurring but the location moves.

Read more at ClimateProgress…

29 thoughts on “Kevin Trenberth downgrades global warming to just a ‘hotspot’ that moves ‘unpredictably’”

  1. They’re just keep making up this stuff as they go along!!! What a pity individuals like Trenberth do not have to answer to a professional body, or to a regulatory body, that could take disciplinary action against them each time they engage in misleading and deceptive conduct.

  2. “We can name spots for all summers going back quite a few years: Australia in 2009, the Russian heat wave in 2010, Texas in 2011, Death Valley in 2010, the Sinai in 2009, Mohave in 2008, and thousands of other spots going back to the late 1800’s. In fact we can name the Western US from 900-1300 AD, the middle East around 1,300 BC. In fact there is no limit to what I can name.”

    White jacket please.

  3. I object that the idea of public schools and roads being inherently socialist concepts. Such concepts are fundamental to any form of limited government if not more so. In true Lockean form of limited government the government exists only to provide such services.

  4. I can report that the missing hotspot is definitely not in NZ.I’ll let you know if I spot it here.

  5. Drought Monitor was created for one reason only, to increase reporting actual, and alleged droughts.

    Alarmism 101.

  6. First, what happened to the global aspect of it? Second, how can a greater frequency be reconciled with data showing trends are decreasing? Supposedly, even the forthcoming IPCC report will say that drought and hurricanes will not increase.

  7. As DirkH suggests, perhaps we should put a name to the effect that Dr. Trenberth describes, just so we can better identify and track occurrences of that effect.

    I propose that a Trenberth be defined as a parcel of hot air that stays for a while but which signifies nothing of importance. Long-lasting parcels of hot air that cause great discomfort and extreme annoyance, but which tend to wander and dissipate with time, can be known as Megatrenberths. Further, methane-based Megatrenberths produced by the intestinal tract can be further classified as Hansen-Mann Trenberthian Events. While these can cause states of near-panic in nearby populations, they are generally not harmful unless they occur within closed environments.

    And who says good science can’t be done anymore?

  8. It is sunny where I am, but my son says it is raining where he lives, in another state. This must be further proof of climate change.
    “Hot spots??” Like politics, all weather is local.

  9. Howdy Ben
    We’re getting adrift but — whether an error or an evil, or some of each, Socialism has done much evil. I suspect it’s inherent in Socialism.
    It’s true that there are some areas of collective enterprise like roads and ports and there’s a need for government to uphold contracts, public safety, rule of law and national security. Those aren’t “socialism” as it’s usually understood or practices.

  10. For a hundred years, the left has proclaimed the only flaw with socialism is that it has been instituted by the wrong people. People like Obama are viewed as – finally – the right person to implement socialism. Funny, people like Stalin are viewed as “the wrong people” only after their death.

    Sorry, Ben, socialism is evil. Replacing “unchecked Capitalism” with unchecked government is evil.

  11. Climate dialog has 3 papers on “The missing tropical hotspot.” Perhaps that is why he is saying what he is saying – to hedge his bets?

  12. Socialism in and of itself isn’t bad. Indeed, a touch of government interference is necessary to reign in the excesses of unchecked Capitalism (think T.Roosevelt and the end of the Gilded Age), and if done properly, it provides for a foundation of equality (public schools and public roads, for instance, are necessary for any form of democracy but are inherently socialist concepts).

    As a dominant economic philosophy, it is too susceptible to human flaws, but it is not an evil to be shunned

  13. You’d like to think this would disappear. But Socialism remains appealing to some after roughly 150 years of failure — more if you think about various collective experiments like the first Plymouth Colony year.

  14. For every hot spot happening you should find a corresponding cool spot to balance things out, always has been and always will be. Maybe they should call themselves the hot spot chasers and jet around the earth as they form to get good footage for tv, much like the tornado chasers.

  15. Ah, so every hot spot on the Earth is now caused by global warming. He doesn’t mention the cold spots, so I guess the cold spots are not caused by global warming.

    This global warming seems to be amazingly selective in warming little bits of the Earth’s surface and carefully avoiding all the cold bits.

    Perhaps Dr Trenberth should read this and this. Most of the heatwaves have been due to blocking events, which occur more often during periods of low solar magnetic activity.

  16. As the years pass I expect Kevin’s hot spot will get smaller and smaller and finally be nothing more than an infinitely small point with no measurable dimension at all. When that happen this AGW (or whatever we’re calling it then) will finally vanish. Then the genuine scientists can get on with solving the world’s genuine problems. It would be nice if at this time the frauds like Gore, Hansen, Mann,Trenberth, Schmidt, and so many others were doing some serious time behind bars for pulling off this fraud.

  17. What a load of nonsensical drivelling rot from drongo nonpareil, Trenberth.

    If he was any sort of meteorologist…..ah but then?

    Jeepers, has he never heard of the blocking system of an large anticyclone high pressure area – they’re not that common but common enough to make them familiar to anyone who knows weather systems and meteorology….. even a little bit.,/b>
    It means hot weather in the NH in summer and brass monkeys in the winter Ken.
    They are not exclusive to the NH and can be found in the other bit too, all it takes is a bit of reading Ken and a bit of reviewing of peers.

  18. Yes, precisely what is happening. It has already cost trillions in actual expenditures and in lost opportunities. If Americans and Europeans keep voting for watermelons, it will continue to do so.

  19. It seems to me this is how weather has worked all my life. Some years drought here some years drought there some years it rains more in the north sometimes in the south.

    This is just redefining normal weather variation as nefarious climate change

  20. This is pure jibberish. Heat waves moving from spot to spot?. Its like they have never watched the weather. There are heat waves and cool spots every summer. There are floods and drought. For the spiritual, its right out of scripture, and a hit song was made out of it……For every season..turn turn turn.. remember The fact is the earths temps have leveled off the past 17 years and are starting down as the natural change in the Pacific to a cooler regime has started, the atlantic soon to follow. The satellite data started at the end of the last cold PDO so it recorded a natural uptick that would go along with the warmer pdo, especially out of the cold cycle. Its a natural process, and while details are complex, the overall idea is simple. The design of the system demands fluctuation and a search for a balance that can not be reached

    Its one “the dog ate my homework excuse” after another from a group that is no more than climatic ambulance chasers, heat waves now the latest to chase


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