Hans von Storch writes:
We have recently uploaded to academia.edu a manuscript, coauthored by us two and two others, with the title ‘Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming’, in which we compare the magnitude trends in the global mean temperature recently observed – trends in the last 10 years and the trends in the last 15 years (1998-20012) – with the ensemble of trends simulated by climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Projects CMIP3 and CMIP5. Recent trends as low or lower as those observed in the HadCRUT4 data set, of merely 0.4 C/century, are reproduced by at most 2% of the scenario simulations. Also two other analyses of the development of global mean temperature have been considered, with a higher trend of 0.8 C/century by GISS and 0.4 C/century by NCDC – these other trends show up in the ensemble of scenario simulation at most in 4.7% of all cases and 0.6% of all cases. Obviously, there is some uncertainty in the trends, but our overall conclusion that the present trends are at the margin of the distribution generated by available A1B and RCP4.5 scenarios is robust against this uncertainty.