There is an undeniable and unavoidable problem for warming fanatics.
It’s called cooling and worse.
There were, no doubt, the Minoan and Roman and Medieval warmers–goo times were had by all, in fact there were measurable improvements in the stature of those lucky enough to live in the Medieval Warm period.
However, where there is warm, there can also be cool or cold or terrible famines from lack of a good growing season.
Here is something to stick in the eye of the typical fanatic who is convinced that warming is bad or worse–some cooling famine.
Research shows,
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/10/global_cooling_versus_global_warming.html
and for those who can’t read or comprehend, there were cooling and famine conditions created during ancient times that are now shown to cause great disruptions of civilization and great loss of life and the blessings of a favorable climate.
Cooling bad, warming good. Pretty simple. We will leave the question of an ideal temperature for the earth to another inquiry, since the warmers are stuck on a negative.
Very good_I look forward to watching changes happen!
For a discussion of the timing and extent of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
Here ,for convenience is a summary of the conclusions of the latest post.
In earlier posts on this site http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com at 4/02/13 and 1/22/13
I have combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.
Here are the conclusions of those posts.
1/22/13 (NH)
1) The millennial peak is sharp – perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming – and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two – 2014/16 -with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-
3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 – 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees
4)The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 – 16 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.
4/02/13 ( Global)
1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.
How confident should one be in these above predictions? The pattern method doesn’t lend itself easily to statistical measures. However statistical calculations only provide an apparent rigor for the uninitiated and in relation to the IPCC climate models are entirely misleading because they make no allowance for the structural uncertainties in the model set up.This is where scientific judgment comes in – some people are better at pattern recognition and meaningful correlation than others. A past record of successful forecasting such as indicated above is a useful but not infallible measure. In this case I am reasonably sure – say 65/35 for about 20 years ahead. Beyond that certainty drops rapidly. I am sure, however, that it will prove closer to reality than anything put out by the IPCC, Met Office or the NASA group. In any case this is a Bayesian type forecast- in that it can easily be amended on an ongoing basis as the Temperature and Solar data accumulate. If there is not a 0.15 – 0.20. drop in Global SSTs by 2018 -20 I would need to re-evaluate.
Make sure you point out to your warmist friends that they are always tweaking the temp record. If global warming is so cut and dried and taking the earth’s temp so simple, why is there a need to adjust temperatures? And if it isn’t so simple and cut and dried, doesn’t that suggest that they aren’t so sure about what’s actually happening as they profess to be?
You can summarize this in six words. “Nothing sucks like an ice age.”
If the warmists want to go toe-to-toe on the precautionary principle, bring in on.
Don’t worry about the cold. The climate scammers are hard at work.
As there is still plenty of money still to be made with the warming scam – why should they ruin a good thing?
As long as the government and the MSM keep telling people they are dying from the heat (put on another blanket, by the way) they will remain in control.
By the time it gets too cold to ignore–they will have taken the money and run — to a few warm islands near the equator.
What is really amazing is that the cooling is so strong they can’t credibly cover it up. Every year they goose temp numbers from weather stations for data after 1959 and lower it before 1959 to make global warming look as strong as possible. The last few years they have been forced to admit that the temperatures have been “even” not really going up or down. But with all the upward bias from their data “modification” (falsification?) for the bias to be merely flat is amazing in itself. Watch the 1.89 degree drop disappear over the next 5 years.
The world does indeed face a dire and truly urgent threat from climate change. It is just not what the Global Warming Alarmists want everyone to think it is.
Recently an extreme escalation of the temperature decline has occurred and is shown in the UKMO official Central England Temperature CET record. In the first half of 2013, UK Met Office CET temperatures were a full 1.89°C lower than the monthly averages of the previous 12 years.
That is really significant and it really matters. That marked decline has lead to significant crop failures and serious loss of agricultural productivity. The effect has been mirrored in both hemispheres.
Assessing the sunspot records we seem to be rapidly heading for a Dalton minimum event (at best) in the next few decades. This will destroy agricultural productivity throughout the world.
But Global Warming advocates only ever propose solutions for the control of Global Warming, (overheating), by reducing Man-made CO2 emissions.
The climate is presently changing, (as it continues to do naturally), to a colder phase, probably because of reducing solar activity and changing ocean circulation patterns. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming advocates fail to explain how reduction of man-made atmospheric CO2 can ever can help to control Climate Change towards a cooling world.
Having made so many dire predictions of impending climate catastrophes from overheating, the advocates of Global Warming / Climate Change fail to accept that a climate change towards a cooler climate is more likely to lead to more intense adverse weather. There is good reason to expect this, simply because the energy differential between the poles and the tropics is bound to be greater and that in itself leads to less stable atmospheric conditions.
A cooling world as the Northern Hemisphere seen in the years since 2000 leads to much more dire consequences for the biosphere and for mankind than any realistic amount of warming that could ever arise from future man-made CO2 emissions. Cold is a much greater threat than any moderate amount of additional warmth that could result from greater release of Man-made CO2.
National policy makers and the United Nations are neither recognizing nor are they preparing for this potentially disastrous eventuality, for example.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm130910/halltext/130910h0001.htm#13091045000001
Steve Baker: We have agreed here that science proceeds by conjecture and refutation, so in an attempt not to have a cloying consensus, will the Minister fund some climate scientists who wish to refute the current thesis?
Gregory Barker: “I am afraid that I do not have a budget for that sort of research.”
In spite of the enormous costs and appalling waste it is clear that the powers that be do not want to hear the good news that there is no real problem to be tackled.
It is now estimated that Climate Change policies in Europe alone will cost ~ £174,000,000,000 annually by 2020 or about 1.5% of European GDP.
But this figure does not include the attendant losses to Europe of industries already leaving the EU for regions with more rational energy policies.