Cooked models blame warming for deadly Aussie floods

Guilt by deisgn.

The media release is below.


Warming ocean worsened Australia’s fatal 2010/2011 floods

As world leaders gather in Paris at the end of the month for the COP 21 climate summit, new research from scientists reveals the destructive impact the warming global ocean can have on society.

A study by a team of U.S. and Australian researchers shows that long-term warming of the Indian and Pacific oceans played an important role in increasing the risk of the kind of devastating floods that struck Australia in 2010/2011. The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

The floods in Australia’s northeast state of Queensland claimed 35 lives, caused $2.38 billion damage, flooded 28,000 homes and left 100,000 people without power. So much rain fell on Australia that it led to a rare filling of Lake Eyre, a large lake system in the interior of the country, and caused a drop in global sea level.

“The sea surface temperatures around Australia during 2010/2011 were on average 0.5°C warmer than they were 60 years ago,” said lead author Caroline Ummenhofer, a physical oceanographer with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). “While many past studies have found a global warming link to heat extremes, this study is one of the first to show how ocean warming can impact a heavy rainfall event.”

In the summer of 2010/2011, Australia was surrounded by extremely warm sea surface temperatures, particularly in the eastern Indian Ocean, western Pacific warm pool region – to the north and east of Papua New Guinea – and the Coral Sea.

It led to a summer where rainfall in Australia’s northeast was 84 percent above average and soil moisture measurements were the highest recorded since 1950. This was in spite of it being an average cyclone season.

Both a strong La Niña event and long-term ocean warming contributed to the unusually warm ocean conditions around Australia in 2010/2011. Ummenhofer and her colleagues ran numerical experiments to try to understand how different factors contributed to the unusual 2010/2011 conditions: One experiment included the long-term warming in addition to the La Niña sea surface temperatures, while the other had removed the warming trend. Their research determined that due to warmer sea surface temperatures, Australia was three times as likely to get this much rain during a strong La Niña event.

“The additional warming of the oceans has profound impacts on the atmosphere. It increases the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and can intensify rain-producing circulation conditions,” said co-author Prof Matthew England from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

“This is why in 2010/11 more moisture was brought onshore along Australia’s east coast. Stronger rising motion over the northeast resulted in higher rainfall, making it more likely for Australia to suffer extreme rainfall conditions during this strong La Niña.”

In addition to the warming oceans bringing more rainfall, previous research has also shown that as a result of global warming, strong La Niña and El Niño events are likely to become more frequent.

“Australia has long been acknowledged as a country of extremes but this research suggests extreme rainfall events may become far more frequent in a warming world,” said Ummenhofer. “As we come into climate change talks in Paris, this research offers yet another incentive for countries around the world to take action to forestall global warming.”


3 thoughts on “Cooked models blame warming for deadly Aussie floods”

  1. Why is it that most of these global warming models that are cooked never explain historical conditions? Example, ( So much rain fell on Australia that it led to a rare filling of Lake Eyre, a large lake system in the interior of the country, and caused a drop in global sea level.) and Obama, when standing in front of a glacier telling the Alaskans that their glacier was melting to a new historic point… and meanwhile there was evidence of the receding glacier uncovering a forest that had been growing before it was covered with snow and ice. If it was such a major event that the lake system was filled, where did the lake system come from to start with. It becomes more obvious that the pro warming “scientists” are cooking more and more of their models…

  2. There was a report created about 9 months after the floods. These two sentenced in the abstract get to the heart of the issue.
    “We examine the time history of water releases from the Wivenhoe dam, which have been accused of aggravating damage downstream. The dam was built in response to even worse flooding in 1974 and now serves as Brisbane’s main water supply. In our analysis, the dam operators made sub-optimal decisions by neglecting forecasts of further rainfall and assuming a ‘no rainfall’ scenario. ”
    Obviously the newest paper simply left out a word. Rather than climate change, it was climate change hysteria. Climate models predicted permanent drought so the operators stopped managing the dams for flood control.

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