Warmists say they won’t disbelieve models unless ‘pause’ lasts another 20 years!

AFP reports:

Over the past 50 years, the mean global temperature rise was 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, slowing to an average 0.05 C (0.09 F) per decade over the past 15 years.

Half of the slowdown could be attributed to volcanic eruptions, whose particles reflect sunlight, and a bigger-than expected drop in heat from the Sun’s changing activity cycle, said a summary of the report.
The other half is attributed to a “cooling contribution from internal variability”.

Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs said the term is used to explain a shift in the way heat is distributed between land, sea and air.

Still unclear is what causes the variation or determines its duration.
“We know that this kind of episode, of a decadal length or thereabouts, can occur once or twice a century,” said Terray.

“If it (the present one) continues for two more decades, we may start to think that the computer models are underestimating internal variability.”

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11 thoughts on “Warmists say they won’t disbelieve models unless ‘pause’ lasts another 20 years!”

  1. Since there appears to be a 60 year cycle of warming and cooling they are hoping that another 20 years time will take us back into a warming period.

  2. Mean while they peddle the same old “solution”: stop the future and return to the ways of a stone age hunting and gathering tribe. Rather than adapt the technology of the 8th century, we are to drop all the way back to 20,000 BC. Except that we may not use caves as dwelling places. They are sacred resources that are not to be used for benefit of mankind.

  3. So, guy who gets paid to run the computer models says we should keep trusting the computer models untill he’s retired. Well as long as he’s not working for an oil company, I think we should trust him.

  4. This current cooling period will probably end around 2030 based on normal ocean occilation cycles – unless the sun goes to sleep. So we have 17 more years, not quite enough to get them to shut up.

  5. It’s ironic that they only needed eight years or so of mild warming to declare a global emergency but now they need a total of 37 years of stasis (17 have already occurred) to even doubt the models?
    Any normal person will reject that.

  6. “Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs”

    Another 20 years, then he can retire.

  7. We don’t need them to “disbelieve” models; we need them to adjust some constants so that their projections aren’t way too high. Some of that has been happening already.

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