Report: 2013 so cool that global temp may crash below model-projected 90% probability range

The Daily Mail reports:

The global warming ‘pause’ has now lasted for almost 17 years and shows no sign of ending – despite the unexplained failure of climate scientists’ computer models to predict it.

The Mail on Sunday has also learnt that because 2013 has been relatively cool, it is very likely that by the end of this year, world average temperatures will have crashed below the ‘90 per cent probability’ range projected by the models.

These also provide the main basis for the sweeping forecasts of a perilous, hotter world in a new report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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8 thoughts on “Report: 2013 so cool that global temp may crash below model-projected 90% probability range”

  1. Coach Springer,

    Your point is well taken, but the temperatures lying outside the 90% probability range means there is only a 10% probability that the models are right. Also, they “only” are 95% confident that more than half the warming was man-made. So it should read:

    10% probability = greater than 95% confidence

    P.S.
    If the 90% probability range includes the high side, than there is only a 5% chance of seeing temperatures this low. OMG it’s worse than we thought!

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