New Hansen paper: Burning all fossil fuels would make ‘most of planet uninhabitable’

Listening to Jim Hansen would make the planet uninhabitable for many people much sooner.

The abstract is below.

The paper is here.


Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide


Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

7 thoughts on “New Hansen paper: Burning all fossil fuels would make ‘most of planet uninhabitable’”

  1. Hansen keeps decertifying his dead certainty.

    He has gone from Venus runaway (500 C surface temperatures),
    to no Venus runaway but completely uninhabitable,
    to only most of the planet uninhabitable now.

    If current trends continue (ho ho!), Hansen will be back to his previous claims of an impending new ice age.

  2. “We use a global model, simplified to essential processes”

    You know, throw out the sun, the oceans, the magnetic field… unimportant stuff, and just use one temperature for the whole thing because regional variation really mucks things up.

  3. Venus is an interesting story. First it gets 2.7x the solar energy of earth. Secondly its atmosphere is much denser contributing to the heat. And the 2.7x energy caused temps to be above that of earth which made small molecules blow off into space leaving only greenhouse gasses behind. (Similar thing happened on Mars, lots of heat or not enough gravity amount to the same thing. Anything smaller than CO2 is blown away into space. )

    But even with all these differences, somehow adding just a tiny bit of CO2 in our Earthly air will turn us in 100 years into Venus. Somehow I doubt the conclusion, and think it is just another scare.

  4. Warmists love this man and excuse his idiocy all the time. One supposes if your hero is a flaming idiot (pun intended) then there is adequate reason to question whether or not the movement is idiotic. This is better yet–he’s writing papers this time, so the warmists cannot claim it’s just a “slip of tongue” like they try to do with his “oceans boiling” statement. He has put into writing the idiocy. Why not admit you just hate humanity and get it over with??

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