Climategate 3.0: Climategater to World Bank – Economic damage estimates from global warming should be ‘treated very skeptically’; ‘Our methodology is so flaky’

Sir Nicholas Stern?

The e-amil is below.

###

> >> >Date: Thu, 29 Apr 1999 10:14:36 +0100
> >> >To: lringius@worldbank.org
> >> >From: Mike Hulme
> >> >Subject: Re: The Climatic Variability and Climate Change
> Initiative for
> >> Africa
> >> >In-Reply-To:
> >> >
> >> >Lasse,
> >> >
> >> >Sorry for the delayed reply, but things have been very
> hective with IPCC
> >> tasks recently.
> >> >
> >> >I read your draft outline with interest. I think it is good
> to get more
> >> thinking about these issues in Africa. For the first of the two
> >> activities
> >> in Phase 1, then from my rather UK perspective the following
> come to mind:
> >> >
> >> >- Ed Clay and Charlie Benson at ODI
> >> >- maybe the IDS at Sussex
> >> >- also CSERGE here at UEA and UCL have done some interesting work on
> >> climate and adaptation in SE Asia and the Caribbean (Neil Adger et al.)
> >> >
> >> >There should also be links to SARCOF and the other regional Forums and
> >> then of course there is national expertise in some countries. Indeed,
> >> trying to do this study for the whole of Africa is quite a
> challenge – it
> >> may be best divided into 3-4 regional studies, drawing upon
> >> regional experts.
> >> >
> >> >As for the second Phase 1 activity, then this falls well
> within our area
> >> of interest here at CRU, although IRI in the States would also be well
> >> placed to do it. Either way, it should work with people at Cape Town,
> >> Nairobi and maybe Morocco.
> >> >
> >> >Just a couple of minor points about the draft you sent:
> >> >
> >> >- the 2nd sentence is ambiguous; ‘rainfall varies by +-40% …’ You I
> >> think mean interannual variability (i.e., year-to-year). There is also
> >> inter-decadal variability (very large for the Sahel) and multi-decadal
> >> variability. Important to discriminate between these different
> >> time-scales
> >> of variability.
> >> >- p.2, bottom paragraph: studies reporting damages due to
> global warming
> >> are *very* poorly substantiated (e.g. you cite -10% to -2.2%
> of GDP/capita
> >> loss). I would treat all such estimates very skeptically. We
> really do
> >> not know the cost of global warming damage because our
> methodology is so
> >> flaky.
> >> >- p.5, top under Analytic Framework: your 1st sentence says that
> >> knowledge
> >> about future local climate change is insufficient for the purpose of
> >> decisio-making …….. I disagree. Even though there are large
> >> uncertainties, these uncertainties are not unbounded and with new
> >> techniques I believe we can present the range of future climate
> >> outcomes in
> >> a more usable risk assessment framework. Such a framework
> definitely *is*
> >> of use to decision-makers. But this does not undermine your
> >> central thesis
> >> that we need to think more about adaptation; indeed, it
> strengthens your
> >> case because we can generate better distributions of the
> (future) climate
> >> events to which we have to adapt.
> >> >
> >> >All the best, and keep me in touch. I am working on a new climate
> >> scenario paper for Africa, requested by the IPCC, and I will send you a
> >> copy in a few weeks time when we have finished the first draft.
> >> >
> >> >Regards,
> >> >
> >> >Mike
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >At 21:55 22/03/99 -0500, you wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>Dear Mike,
> >> >>
> >> >>These days I am drafting a research proposal for the World
> Bank that is
> >> >>concerned with better adaptation to the current climate in
> >> Africa. It is not
> >> >>funded or anything, but there might be some funding for the
> >> first part – the
> >> >>entire draft is attached.
> >> >>
> >> >>My questions are: Who would be able to do a good job on this
> study? Do
> >> you have
> >> >>any suggestions:
> >> >>
> >> >>The Bank would commission a study estimating weather-related
> >> damages due to
> >> >>current climatic variability in Africa. Much relevant
> material and many
> >> >>case-studies exist, yet there is no comprehensive information
> >> on the cost of
> >> >>variability to the continent as a whole or on particularly vulnerable
> >> countries,
> >> >>sectors and Bank investments. A report which summarizes
> >> existing information
> >> >>would be a useful point of reference and could serve to justify
> >> >>adaptation. Such a document should contain a critical
> discussion of the
> >> >>analytical frameworks used in damage estimations.
> >> >>
> >> >>I would of course be gald to hear if you have any other
> >> comments that you
> >> might
> >> >>have.
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>I hope that all is well with you.
> >> >>
> >> >>Best regards,
> >> >>
> >> >>Lasse
> >> >>
> >> >>(See attached file: climatic variability and change initiative for
> >> africa.doc)
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>Attachment Converted: “c:eudoraattachclimatic variability
> and change
> >> initiative for africa.doc”
> >> >>
> >> ******************************************************************
> >> ***********
> >> Dr Mike Hulme
> >> Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162
> >> Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784
> >> School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk
> >> University of East Anglia web site:
> >> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
> >> Norwich NR4 7TJ
> >>
> >> ******************************************************************
> >> ***********
> >> Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999
> >> is about +1.6 deg C above the 1961-90 average
> >> ***************************************************
> >> The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998
> >> was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year
> yet recorded
> >> ******************************************************************
> >> ***********
> >>
> >
> >
> ******************************************************************
> ***********
> Dr Mike Hulme
> Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162
> Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784
> School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk
> University of East Anglia web site:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
Norwich NR4 7TJ
****************************************************************************
*
Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999
is about +1.5 deg C above the 1961-90 average
***************************************************
The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998
was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet recorded
****************************************************************************
*
date: Mon Jul 19 14:06:25 1999
from: Mike Hulme
subject: RE: The Climatic Variability and Climate Change Initiative for Africa
to: Lasse Ringius
Lasse,
Here is the title page and abstract of the draft journal article. It is part of
a Special Issue on climate change impacts in Africa and would appear early next
year.
Let me know if I can cite your draft World Bank report.
Mike
__________________________________________________
“African Climate Change: 1900-2100”
Mike Hulme1, Ruth Doherty1, Todd Ngara2, Mark New1 and David Lister1
1 Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia,
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
2 Climate Change Office, Ministry of Mines, Environment and Tourism, P.Bag 7753
Causeway,
Harare, Zimbabwe
Corresponding Author: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk
Submitted to Climate Research, July 1999
Abstract
We review continent-wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa over the
last 100 years drawing upon a new observed global climate data set. Some
aspects of observed regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range
and rainfall variability are also presented. Regions of Africa where seasonal
rainfall is sensitive to El NiÒo variability are identified. This review of
past changes provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas
induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the new preliminary
emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and
a simple climate model to link these two analyses. We present a range of four
climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional
seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in
global CO2 concentration and sea-level change are also supplied. While these
scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work, we identify
some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate.
These include the often poor representation of El NiÒo variability in global
climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of
regional land cover changes and changing dust and biomass aerosol loadings.
These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African
climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of
climate change scenarios such as those presented here and how best they should
be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments.
At 14:20 19/07/99 +0200, you wrote:
>Mike,
>
>I have contacted the Bank in order to check if and how to use my note.
>Perhaps you could send me the draft so I kno the context.
>
>Best wishes,
>
>Lasse
>
>> —–Original Message—–
>> From: Mike Hulme [mailto:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk]
>> Sent: 16. juli 1999 20:08
>> To: Lasse Ringius
>> Subject: RE: The Climatic Variability and Climate Change Initiative for
>> Africa
>>
>>
>> Lasse,
>>
>> I am putting the finishing touches to my new scenario paper for Africa and
>> would like to cite your note for the World Bank on climate variability and
>> adaptation. Can I do so and what reference should I use?
>>
>> Many thanks,
>>
>> Mike
>>
>> At 13:25 28/05/99 +0200, you wrote:
>> >Mike,
>> >
>> >Sorry for this delayed reply to your mail. I have been quite
>> busy with many
>> >things since my return from Washington, but am slowly getting
>> back to things
>> >as they were.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.