Global warming to kill elderly people with chronic disease?

A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences claims that increased summertime temperature variability (presumably from the much-dreaded climate change) will increase the death rate of elderly people with chronic disease by three to four percent (3-4%).

This study is, of course, an exercise in statistics that is devoid of any relationship to the real world of morbidity and mortality.

What the study authors apparently want to be able to show is that global warming will cause warmer summers and increased death rates. But the best they can produce, apparently, is that elderly people with certain illnesses (heart disease, respiratory problems and diabetes) will have marginally higher death rates the more variable summer temperatures are.

Interestingly, they aren’t claiming that an increase in mean summertime temperature will kill people, but only an increase in the variability of summertime temps. Although they want you to think warmer temps only, in fact, a larger standard deviation necessarily means more cooler temps and a lower mean summertime temperature.

But why anyone would attempt this con is beyond us. Consider this image form the PNAS study, which shows generally increasing temperature variability the further south you go:

So if the supposition were true that increased summertime temperature variability generally increased mortality rates then we’d expect to find mortality rates increase the further south you go.

But consider this image of state-by-state mortality rates:

The expected pattern doesn’t exist and is, in fact, most clearly debunked by Florida, Montana and Wyoming.

12 thoughts on “Global warming to kill elderly people with chronic disease?”

  1. I’d bet on a spike in elderly deaths during the cold, bleak winter periods that’s bigger than the summer heat-wave spike.

    Multiple birthday syndrome tends to bring all kinds of aches, pains and chronic diseases.

  2. This is nothing new. Summer has always claimed a goodly percentage of the elderly due to the heat.
    But the National Academy of Science has really done itself proud. Chronic disease, hey? Who’d have thought chronic disease could kill people? And the elderly, to boot?
    Who cares how many elderly people die of chronic disease in the winter. No one’s counting, right?
    Poor lambs at the NAS, having to sift through that information, must’ve made their little hearts so sad.
    The elderly… dying of chronic disease… in summer, no less. What to do. What to do.

  3. The governments of the West are constantly trying to reduce the unemployment rate – we usually think of the lowest common denominator as the ones out of work ‘IF’ a sensible government was to stop generating all these useless pseudo research/philosophy/psychology and many more of the other unneeded BS positions then there would be just so many unemployed but claimed to be educated citizens also in the ranks of the unemployed – your taxes have paid to educate these people – there is a huge surplus of these people so now your taxes are paying them to produce zillions of pages of absolute crap ‘But’ it does keep them off the streets!

  4. NAS uses tax dollars to promote lies based on pseudo-research. Real scientific research is NOT what NAS is all about. Good place to start those deep budget cuts.

  5. The PNAS has become a publication of junkscience to support CAGW in any possible way. All tax dollars should be taken away from all these organizations such as NAS, NRC, etc.

    If we adopt the lifestyles necessary without fossil fuels, they most certainly will wipe out the elderly. I can testify as you grow old your skin, bones, and agility get worse. If I fell down while riding a bicycle, I don’t think I would survive the damage. Life without air conditioning is fatal for the elderly. My grandmother died in Illinois in 1954 due to the heat because air conditioning was not available.

  6. I agree with CB. Won’t be long before the elderly will have only 2 options for healthcare. A pain pill, or euthanasia. The Gov. wants them dead. But then, maybe Obamacare will be struck down.

  7. At a time where the actual (not expected) lifespan is increasing rapidly (Britain faces a growing problem of the centarian population) then of course ‘they’ have to come up with something dramatic to say – what the hells wrong with these people – we all know stats can be produced to support even the most ridiculous claims. The old retort oft heard in the R&R era was ‘why don’t you get a proper job’ – Methinks this could apply to a heap of parasitic academics who obviously have nothing better to to than produce stats that also quite obviously have little or no connection to the real world!

  8. Not having power for air conditioners due to environmental regs will kill more elderly than any temperature increase.

  9. This really begs to be said: As opposed to the hippies killing off old people by placing heating and/or food and/or medical care beyond their ability to afford? Like that? Mmmm?

  10. Places like MI, OH, and PA don’t really fit the pattern very well either. And 3-4%, really? Surely that’s way down in the noise.

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