“The planet could warm up to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 unless action is taken to cut the world’s greenhouse gas output, according to new research.”
… The planet could warm up to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050 unless action is taken to cut the world’s greenhouse gas output, according to new research.
Climate modeling by researchers at Oxford University suggests that warming of 1.4 to 3 degrees Celsius, relative to conditions between 1960 and 1990, is likely by midcentury if no effort is made to cut heat-trapping emissions.
The upper end of that estimate is roughly 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than the highest estimate from a suite of climate models developed for the last report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The study, published yesterday in the journal Nature Geoscience, was based on thousands of climate simulations run using a climate model developed by the U.K. Meteorological Office.
Researchers used the model to simulate conditions between 1920 and 2080, subtly altering aspects of the model for each of the thousands of runs — such as how the model accounts for the effects of clouds.
Then the scientists sifted out the simulations that best reproduced the actual conditions from 1920 to the present, based on the assumption that models that did best at recreating the past would be the most accurate at projecting the future climate…