Well many years ago I learned about the decadal oscillations of the oceans.
So the oceans are water and water circulates based on heating and cooling and the spin of the earth and prevailing winds and weight of the water and temperature differences and magic.
2 years ago we heard about the climate warming predicted got eaten by the oceans, well most people would say that’s just a failure of the modelers to account for the tremendous mix master sink that covers the surface and depths of the blue marble earth.
I learned from climate experts that there is more than the gulf stream, there is the big conveyor belt of ocean current that goes north and south, up and down all around. Fascinating stuff.
Well here is a paper that says the oceans did eat the warm and gave us the cold winter of 2013-14.
Now my friend Dr. Tony Lupo, great Italian climate and meteorology scientist from U of Mizzou, tells me that there is a good chance this year for an El Nino warming of the Pacific west–that’ll revive the warmers hopes to prove their case, but I don’t care, I need rain and our part of the world gets more rain in an El Nino year. Warm western pacific circulates more water vapor to the arid southwest. Me.
El Nino produces high alt winds that cut down the Atlantic Hurricanes though, so a mixed bag for the apocalyptics.
La Nina recently hasn’t produced much in the way of Atlantic Hurricanes, though, oceans ate the hurricanes? Ask Tony.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/04/new-paper-finds-natural-ocean.html
The IPCC is not charged with finding the cause of changes in atmospheric temperature, only with finding the influence of the atmosphere of CO2 from burning fossil fuel or cow farts or anything associated with human progress.
Just for the moment, let’s assume that the surface of the Earth warms by one degree Celsius in a short period of time.
That would take a lot of energy. Since the atmosphere and the land have relatively lower heat energy capacity than the oceans, and since the oceans make up about 70% of the Earth’s surface, most of the heat must be stored, at least in the short-term in the top layer of the oceans. The heat from the atmosphere too will enter the oceans with the rain.
Over time, perhaps hundreds of years, the heat near the surface of the tropical oceans will be transported by ocean currents to the extra-tropical regions and mixed with cooler water in the process. So the oceans will absorb the energy that caused the initial rise in temperature.
The oceans are a great heat sink, cooling the air and the land when they are warmer and warming the land and air when they are cooler.
I don’t understand why there is any argument about this, nor any argument about the roles of the ocean oscillations (PDO, AMO, NAO) except for one point.
We are told now that the pause in warming is because the ocean oscillations have switched to their cold phase.
If we apply some logical thinking to this, we realize straightaway that the speaker knows that these oscillations had a warm phase that prevailed before switching to the cold phase.
We are now entitled to ask the following question. If the cold phase started in 2000 or so and will last for maybe 30 years, does this mean that during the 30 years before 2000, from 1970 or so to 2000 the ocean oscillations were in their warm phase?
If it is true that natural ocean oscillations cause the warming from 1970 to 2000, how can you claim that humans caused the warming by producing too much CO2 and other greenhouse gases?
This question is important because we need to know if the role of the IPCC is the scientific one of examining all causes of change in global temperature or the unscientific role of proving that humans cause climate change and the UN and its agencies must organize the governments of the world to change people’s behaviour.
If the IPCC is merely a political organization using science as a prop for political reasons, then the governments of the world need to reassess whether or not the terms of reference need to be changed to make it a scientific body or whether the IPCC should be abolished altogether.