These people are beginning to be a joke.
Lookee here, when your Kappa value is below .50 that means your predictive accuracy is worse than a monkey. That means you are allowing a bias into your calculations.
And lordee how these gov weather people are biased.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/02/climatology_has_been_falling_on.html
We had a neighbor that suddenly began predicting the weather. He never missed a single forecast for about two weeks and everyone wondered what he had going for him. Then one day he missed it and he never made another forecast. I cornered his little brother one day and asked him what the guy’s secret was. He replied: “Oh he was just listening to the daily forecast and predicting the exact opposite.”
Excellent observations and comments. I think this info and study is going to have legs–it exposes a very bad NOAA adn Met Office staff–they should lose some reputation, and i can’t help think it was hopeful forecasting to put off what they suspected might be happening.
Now they can say oh–that’s old news.
We use Kappa in medicine, and they probably do in other obsevational situations to measure interobserver agreement. It is used to determine the accuracy of the agreement with the same scale– 0.5 being equivalent to chance and anything below .75 very troublesome for reliability of the observers. So that’s why the Heidke Skill score made me think of Kappa.
A bad Kappa, like 0.4 characterized the Harvard Group’s assessment of negligence in their big patient safety study in of care in New York hospitals in 1984, reported in the NEJM in 1991.
It may be that i used Kappa inappropriately and the Heidke Skill score is the proper way to measure accuracy of predictions. If so i will sit in the corner for a little while.
The average person does not understand statistics. If someone actually had a monkey and video taped it throughing its shit against a wall with weather predictions on it and dutifully reported the results (all video taped and date stamped). And documented that it had better prediction value than NOAA or the Met Office, I think that would be the straw that breaks the camels back.
There is no sense of humor on the left.
They have long proven the old saying that: If you can’t take a joke, you are one.
A negative Heidke Skill Score (kappa?) means that the forecaster is wrong more often than right. I would take him to a Blackjack Table and bet against thim to get rich.
“These people are beginning to be a joke.”
Beginning to be a joke? .. They have been a joke for quite sometime. It is about time people begin to realize this.