Attention climate change scholars

2 thoughts on “Attention climate change scholars”

1. yeeow Norman, mighty fine exegisis and certainly up to a level of erudition that Singer would appreciate.
   i will have to read with my finger, though. .

2. There has been no net warming since 1997 with CO2 up 8%. The earth has been cooling since 2003 a trend which will continue for 20 years and perhaps for hundreds of years beyond that. The key factor in making CO2 emission control policy is the climate sensitivity to CO2 . By AR5 – WG1 even the IPCC is saying: (Section 9.7.3.3)
   “The assessed literature suggests that the range of climate sensitivities and transient responses covered by CMIP3/5 cannot be narrowed significantly by constraining the models with observations of the mean climate and variability, consistent with the difficulty of constraining the cloud feedbacks from observations ”
   In plain English this means that they have no idea what the climate sensitivity is and that therefore that the politicians have no empirical scientific basis for their economically destructive climate and energy policies.
   The projections of the IPCC – Met office models and all the impact studies which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models. They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money. As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.
   An empirically based forecast of the coming cooling can be found at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
   “I’ve combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.
   Here are the conclusions of those posts.
   1/22/13 (NH)
   1) The millennial peak is sharp – perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming – and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two – 2014/16 -with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
   2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-
   3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 – 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees
   4)The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 – 16 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.
   4/02/13 ( Global)
   1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
   2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
   3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
   4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
   5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
   6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
   7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
   8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
   9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario”
   It is past time to abandon discussing the irrelevant IPCC reports and looked at empirically based forecasts.