The Washington Post reports:
A landmark report slated for release Friday is likely to announce the world’s leading climate scientists are 95 percent certain that recent global warming is largely due to human activities.
But what the report, from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will not say is that scientists are 95 percent certain about the severity of the consequences.
This is an important distinction, but one that frequently gets blurred.
1. We’re vague on how much warming has occurred but we’re sure it’s been overstated.
2. We’re vague on what role human activity, particularly production of CO2, plays in any warming but we’re sure it’s overstated.
3. We’re vague on what harms or benefits may have occurred or may be occurring or might occur in the future, but we’re sure the harms are being overstated and the benefits understated.
Although the IPCC’s report is leaving out the “overstated” part, it’s implicit in some of the report and the full report acknowledges the vagueness. This is the point at which the “Summary for Policymakers” completely abandons the scientific and data analysis elements of the report. The “Summary” is essentially a lie and its authors pretend the other 2,000 pages support it when in fact they contradict it.