TIME reports:
It’s been quiet this hurricane season — too quiet. Back in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a “very active” tropical-storm season, one with between seven and 11 hurricanes. The agency lowered that estimate in August to between six and nine hurricanes, but still predicted that three to five of them would become major storms, with winds above 111 m.p.h.
We’re now a day away from the exact midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season, the period when storm activity is historically at its strongest — Sept. 10 — and so far we’ve experienced … nothing. While there have been a handful of tropical storms, we have yet to see a single hurricane — a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of at least 74 m.p.h. This is extremely unusual, and if the calm continues, 2013 could rival 2002, which didn’t experience its first hurricane until Sept. 11. What gives?
Steve: In case the current hurricane season ends with no hurricanes, the only decent thing for you to do is extend your deepest sympathies to Mann, Gore, Hansen et al. They will be absolutely heart broken. 😉
PS. All weather forecasts are 80% SWAG and 20% luck.
So now Time magazine is acting like a cheerleader, hoping a major storm hits so it can blame AGW again. Who cares if people die or lives are ruined–if it helps the agenda, great!
New Orleans got a demonstration of what a hurricane coming in along the right path could do in 1968 with Betsy. I went through my first hurricane season in NOLA in 1975. They new what it might do then. Between ’75 and ’80 there were a couple of floods from heavy rains and failures of pumping stations. Levee management was money to be distributed to political favorites and by Katrina it seems they had forgotten what a big storm could do. So the obvious response to decades governmental misconduct and inaction is to blame the results on the storm angry gods angry punishing us for our sins.
“An October surprise of a storm could still be out there, waiting to strike.” So the general decline in hurricane activity and the lack of any in 2013 has hurricanes lurking out there waiting for an opportunity to strike? Disguised as rainstorms or hiding under cloud cover?
Not a thought in the article that it’s quite possible that pronouncements of doom from increased storm activity could be inaccurate. Ah, the ideological purity. No wonder this mag had some financial problems.
“What gives?” The idea that global warming will drive more powerful and more frequent hurricans gives. Even the peak years of global warming were not peak hurricane years nor even peak tornado years.
It’s true that Katrina caused a tragic number of deaths and a lot of damage; Rita was a rough one also. Both hurricanes were of only ordinary strength and size but they hit areas with large populations and lots of development. In the case of New Orleans specifically, Katrina hit an area run by fools and protected by poory-built levees. The city paid the price for its bad voting and its historic corruption.