Wanna bet?
The Carnegie Institution’s Chris Field writes at CNN:
Recently, and for the first time in more than 2 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere climbed above 400 parts per million, 37% higher than in 1800. The resulting global warming, about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit, will persist for at least 1,000 years.
The newest GRANT SCIENCE FINDINGS . .
International Journal of Modern Physics B
Condensed Matter Physics; Statistical Physics; Applied Physics
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Q.-B. LU, Int. J. Mod. Phys. B DOI: 10.1142/S0217979213500732
COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Q.-B. LU
Department of Physics and Astronomy and Departments of Biology and Chemistry, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Received: 15 October 2012
Revised: 27 February 2013
Accepted: 12 March 2013
Published: 30 May 2013
This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20~25% of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth’s climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5~7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1~2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.
Keywords: Cosmic rays; chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs); ozone depletion; ozone hole; global warming; global cooling
PACS: 34.35.+a, 34.70.+e, 34.80.Ht, 73.20.At, 82.40.Qt
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217979213500732
I read the quote attributing all the warming since the LIA to the industrial revolution / CO2. I gagged. I then linked to the article. Front page picture of a house ruined by Tropical Storm / Hurricane Sandy. Enough already.
As if 1,000 years of current temperatures would be a bad thing? I see he ticks off some sever weather events, but the continued relative scarcity of severe weather would be a bad thing? Not going to happen though. The climate changes despite our delusions that we can stop it.
1.5 degrees since the 1800’s and he is guaranteeing that we won’t have another LIA for 1,000 years. I’m impressed by his predictive ability. Wonder if he would share some market picks and 2013 World Series picks.