The first step in any recovery program is admitting you have a problem.
“Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth’s mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000–2010 period1. To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer2, 3 has been proposed to overcompensate for the Earth’s heat storage.”
Send all warmistas to superficial ocean levels 2 and 3 immediately to check the hypothesis themselves. We will wait expectantly for their return.
“retrospective predictions “? Isn’t that an oxymoron? And how could a retrospective prediction, if such a thing exists, be anything BUT successful?
Modeling is a complete farce. They come up with a theory, and an initial model based on that theory, and when the model COMPLETELY FAILS to explain the past, they tweak the parameters until it does explain the past, ignoring the fact that, when you depart from the theory in this way, even if the model is successful, it fails to prove the theory. And then even the tweaked model (let alone the theory) fails to predict the future, so now they tweak it some more and claim that they have “successfully” predicted the past.
Damn, who knew there was so much money in predicting the past? I predict that the Baltimore Ravens won the 2013 Super Bowl. Where’s my check?
Hey Kevin, found your missing heat fer ya! Got it right here…
Hmmm . . . so their model predicted some surface warming. That failed to happen. The oceans warmed instead, but only below 700m, where we couldn’t see it right away.
And that confirms their model???
Oh, and the decline in arctic sea ice . . . and the increase in antarctic sea ice both prove the models as well.
And the hurricanes, they prove the models as well. Except that hurricanes have been mostly absent in the last 5 years, especially the big scary king (no major hurricanes, class 3-5, have made landfall since Wilma in 2005, Irene and Sandy weren’t even hurricanes when they made US landfall) and there wasn’t a class IV or V hurricane last year. Anywhere. So . . . that proves their models as well?
But 2013 hurricane season? You better watch out! We’re predicting . . .. blah blah blah, give us more money or you’ll all drown!!!
I understand; whatever alarmist claptrap it takes to keep the government teet flowing.
You have to wonder why the heat didn’t simply hide in the deep ocean all the time and therefore cause a real surprise when it decided to spring from hiding and kill us all !
So if I get the gist of this article, the fact that they can retrospectively predict now what the model couldn’t predict then means that we can be more confident the model is correct in the future?
It must be nice to live in their universe, since every error you make just makes you that much more trustworthy. No Fault Science.
“Whack a mole” is the dermatologists’ favorite arcade game.
Thanks for that closing remark, Justin. I needed a chuckle this morning.
Maybe all that global warming going to the ocean instead of the atmosphere is the reason that the sea level on the Virginia coast is supposed to increase by 12″ in the next 20 or so years by thermal expansion of water.
I believe this argument about warming being hidden in the ocean has been kicked around for a while.
The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio-economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.
This is the way the Nature mag admits that skeptics were right about global warmings 16 years and counting hiatus, as a blurb in a paper about retuning a climate model so that it kind of, sort of, pretty close to, something near reality.
As opposed to having one of these clowns tell Bill Maher to his face.
“Sorry Bill. Global warming stopped back when you had a network show. That’s the new consensus.”
Makes me want to punch somebody.
Numbers 1. and 2. are kind of iffy also.
The “Global Warming” argument has 3 components:
1. The earth is getting warmer
2. Due to increased man made greenhouse gases
and
3. Such warming would be catastrophic.
In this instance # 3 is not met. After all, if the earth warms for whatever cause and there is no or minimal effect–WHO CARES?
97% are all agreed, it’s just more BS science – it’s hard admitting you were wrong [CAGW is a crock] and it is only gonna happen slowly – but the retreat from Mann/Hansen et al – is ongoing.
Of course, noted climate scientist and sometime [in a past epoch] ‘comedienne’ Bette Midler – says the supposition [CAGW] is sound – and that realists are thick – er wow Bette that’s so profound luv, you should get into philosophy.
From Tom Nelson:
“@ BetteMidler
Are you ready for brain mapping? Obama says they need to begin by monitoring smaller brains. Climate-change deniers may volunteer.”
I wonder if it will be claimed that this causes more frequent and/or powerful hurricanes…
“The ability to predict retrospectively….”
George Orwell would be proud.
16 years of “missing” heat going into the ocean would cause thermal expansion which would manifest itself in rising sea levels.
I swear it’s like playing whack a mole.
I just knew Trenberth’s ‘missing heat’ would turn up in a model somewhere eventually. Call it a gut feeling.