Does the government have a crystal ball when it comes to forecasting oil prices?
Opponents of offshore drilling claim that such activity would possibly only decrease gas prices by $0.03 per gallon by 2030. That 3-cents figure comes from the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook report.
How credible is this forecast?
Consider the EIA’s 2001 Annual Energy Outlook in which the “high end” price of oil in 2020 is forecast to be $28.42 (See Table 1).
We’re not holding our breath for that one, just like we don’t have much faith in government prognostications about the impact of increased domestic oil production 20 years in the future.
We should explore and drill offshore because it makes to develop our own natural resources — and to ignore gooberment forecasts which are likely to be wrong.