Tag Archives: climate models

Obama’s U-Turn: UN Climate Talks Going Nowhere

After one week of UN climate talks in Thailand, not a single country has made a fresh commitment, and US negotiators stunned delegates by calling for any new treaty to be ‘flexible’ and ‘dynamic’ rather than legally binding, representing a complete U-turn on its previous position. Continue reading

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Do greenhouse gases warm the planet by 33°C? Jinan Cao checks the numbers.

Jinan Cao has been dissecting the nature of the greenhouse effect and a key calculation that I normally just accept without questioning. This will set a few pigeons loose, but it will be interesting to see where they land. Continue reading

Climate change spawns salmon dilemma for San Joaquin River

Skeptical farmers often ask a big key question about the $2 billion revival of the San Joaquin River and salmon runs: How can cold-water salmon possibly survive here as the climate heats up the river?

Prominent fishery biologist Peter Moyle replies that the San Joaquin will be an ideal place for salmon in the future. It will be a pipeline of chilly snowmelt from the high Sierra.

But for years, nobody has been able to settle that debate with science. Now, using a $1.5 million National Science Foundation grant, the University of California at Merced is working on at least part of the answer — a profile of the future San Joaquin River. Continue reading

New blockbuster paper finds man-made CO2 is not the driver of global warming

An important new paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds that changes in CO2 follow rather than lead global air surface temperature and that “CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2″ Continue reading

Doug L. Hoffman: The Mysterious Oxidant X

With the IPCC getting ready to churn out yet another frightening report based on consensus science in 2013, it is interesting to note that many things have changed since the previous report (AR4). Continue reading

Tracking Shuttle Exhaust Reveals More Information About Atmospheric Winds

On July 8, 2011 the Space Shuttle Atlantis launched for the very last time. On that historic day, as the world watched its last ascent up into orbit and commentators discussed the program’s contributions to space flight and scientific research over 20 years, the shuttle helped spawn one last experiment. Continue reading

Steve Milloy: Models, Not Climate, Are Hypersensitive to Carbon Dioxide

The Kyoto Protocol is expiring this year, having accomplished what climate skeptics expected — nothing. Manmade greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric greenhouse are up while global temperature have gone nowhere, the latter a trend that started years before Kyoto went into effect.

But before the international climate kleptocracy descends en masse to its next exotic location (Doha, Qatar in November 2012) to try breathing life into the Kyoto Protocol, someone should check under the hood to review what is trying to be achieved and why. Continue reading

Does the IPCC really believe anyone can predict the future?

In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

So states the IPCC’s Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 14.2.2.2), p774.

It is also about the only unequivocally true statement made by the IPCC in the Third Millennium. Continue reading

“Changing The Climate Change Debate” – A Message From A News Article From 2001 That Is Just As Needed in 2012

On February 19 2001, the Fort Collins Coloradoan posted the following article

“Changing the climate change debate”

by Kevin Darst. The article had the subtitle

“CSU researchers want to look at factors other than greenhouse gases”

Continue reading

New paper finds unjustified assumptions on clouds in most climate models

A paper published today in Earth System Dynamics finds that due to large uncertainties and limited data it is not possible “to rule out either the positive [cloud] feedback present in most climate models or a strong negative cloud feedback.” Continue reading

Past tropical climate change linked to ocean circulation, says Texas A&M team

A new record of past temperature change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean’s subsurface provides clues as to why the Earth’s climate is so sensitive to ocean circulation patterns, according to climate scientists at Texas A&M University. Continue reading

Pierre Gosselin: Hamburg Will Turn Into A Barbecue City By 2050, Commissioned Climate Modellers Claim

German daily Bild here reports on a study commissioned by the Hamburg Environmental Office. Continue reading

Forest Razing by Ancient Maya Worsened Droughts, Says Study

Human-Influenced Climate Change May Have Contributed to Society’s Collapse

So, they increased the local albedo, cooled the surface and caused droughts… Okay. Cooling is known to be really bad for people and primary productivity. Continue reading

Some like it hot: Tropical species ‘not as vulnerable’ to climate change extinction

In the face of a changing climate many species must adapt or perish. Ecologists studying evolutionary responses to climate change forecast that cold-blooded tropical species are not as vulnerable to extinction as previously thought. The study, published in the British Ecological Society’s Functional Ecology, considers how fast species can evolve and adapt to compensate for a rise in temperature. Continue reading

Warming causes more extreme shifts of the Southern Hemisphere’s largest rain band

CSIRO’s modeling exercise. What a pity they can’t forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, even though they are basing this PlayStation® climatology exercise on how El Niño affects regional circulation patterns. Despite proxy records indicating that the ENSO cycle is somewhat muted during warm episodes they’ve gone for the disaster headline, again.

Even worse, “A central issue for community adaptation in Australia and across the Pacific is understanding how the warming atmosphere and oceans will influence the intensity and frequency of extreme events.

Seriously? “Will influence”? The biggest risk we face at present is the sun’s apparent somnolence and potential cooling for which seemingly no one is preparing for or hedging against even though we face a higher likelihood of cooling than warming. “… the warming atmosphere and oceans will influence … ” Sheesh! Continue reading

In the virtual realm: South Pacific Island nations to be hit by more droughts, floods and cyclones, warns CSIRO

Modelers seem to be drifting ever-further from physical reality. The one place where enhanced greenhouse effect can never be significant is the tropics because the atmosphere is already infrared opaque. You can’t close the same window twice, guys. Once it’s closed, it’s closed, end of story and the moist tropical atmosphere already blocks 100% of active GHG bandwidths. The extratropical and dry frigid zones are where enhanced greenhouse could have an effect but that will not significantly affect the tropics. Nothing about a reduced temperature gradient from tropics to poles suggests it can or would increase tropical cyclone activity. You can broaden the width of the moist tropics but you can’t make them more infrared-opaque than 100%, no matter how hard you lie with models. Continue reading

Models get cloud feedback wrong, but *only* by 70W/m2 (that’s 19 times larger than the CO2 effect)

Yet another paper shows that the climate models have flaws, described as “gross” “severe” and “disturbing”. The direct effect of doubling CO2 is theoretically 3.7W per square meter. The feedbacks supposedly are 2 -3 times as strong (according to the IPCC). But some scientists are trying to figure out those feedbacks with models which have flaws in the order of 70W per square meter. (How do we find that signal in noise that’s up to 19 times larger?) Continue reading

Tim Ball: Errors And Omissions In Major Tropical Climate Mechanism Invalidate IPCC Computer Models

George Hadley (1685 – 1768), an Age of Enlightenment citizen, lawyer and amateur meteorologist made a major contribution to climatology through an interest in the Trade Winds. Continue reading

Back in the virtual realm: Climate models that predict more droughts win further scientific support

More PlayStation® climatology. How tedious. Continue reading

Modeling reveals significant climatic impacts of megapolitan expansion

According to the United Nations’ 2011 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, global urban population is expected to gain more than 2.5 billion new inhabitants through 2050. Such sharp increases in the number of urban dwellers will require considerable conversion of natural to urban landscapes, resulting in newly developing and expanding megapolitan areas. Could climate impacts arising from built environment growth pose additional concerns for urban residents also expected to deal with impacts resulting from global climate change? Continue reading