After one week of UN climate talks in Thailand, not a single country has made a fresh commitment, and US negotiators stunned delegates by calling for any new treaty to be ‘flexible’ and ‘dynamic’ rather than legally binding, representing a complete U-turn on its previous position. Continue reading
Tag Archives: climate models
Jinan Cao has been dissecting the nature of the greenhouse effect and a key calculation that I normally just accept without questioning. This will set a few pigeons loose, but it will be interesting to see where they land. Continue reading
Skeptical farmers often ask a big key question about the $2 billion revival of the San Joaquin River and salmon runs: How can cold-water salmon possibly survive here as the climate heats up the river?
Prominent fishery biologist Peter Moyle replies that the San Joaquin will be an ideal place for salmon in the future. It will be a pipeline of chilly snowmelt from the high Sierra.
But for years, nobody has been able to settle that debate with science. Now, using a $1.5 million National Science Foundation grant, the University of California at Merced is working on at least part of the answer — a profile of the future San Joaquin River. Continue reading
An important new paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds that changes in CO2 follow rather than lead global air surface temperature and that “CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2″ Continue reading
With the IPCC getting ready to churn out yet another frightening report based on consensus science in 2013, it is interesting to note that many things have changed since the previous report (AR4). Continue reading
On July 8, 2011 the Space Shuttle Atlantis launched for the very last time. On that historic day, as the world watched its last ascent up into orbit and commentators discussed the program’s contributions to space flight and scientific research over 20 years, the shuttle helped spawn one last experiment. Continue reading
The Kyoto Protocol is expiring this year, having accomplished what climate skeptics expected — nothing. Manmade greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric greenhouse are up while global temperature have gone nowhere, the latter a trend that started years before Kyoto went into effect.
But before the international climate kleptocracy descends en masse to its next exotic location (Doha, Qatar in November 2012) to try breathing life into the Kyoto Protocol, someone should check under the hood to review what is trying to be achieved and why. Continue reading
In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
So states the IPCC’s Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 126.96.36.199), p774.
It is also about the only unequivocally true statement made by the IPCC in the Third Millennium. Continue reading
“Changing The Climate Change Debate” – A Message From A News Article From 2001 That Is Just As Needed in 2012
On February 19 2001, the Fort Collins Coloradoan posted the following article
by Kevin Darst. The article had the subtitle
“CSU researchers want to look at factors other than greenhouse gases”
A paper published today in Earth System Dynamics finds that due to large uncertainties and limited data it is not possible “to rule out either the positive [cloud] feedback present in most climate models or a strong negative cloud feedback.” Continue reading
A new record of past temperature change in the tropical Atlantic Ocean’s subsurface provides clues as to why the Earth’s climate is so sensitive to ocean circulation patterns, according to climate scientists at Texas A&M University. Continue reading
Pierre Gosselin: Hamburg Will Turn Into A Barbecue City By 2050, Commissioned Climate Modellers Claim
German daily Bild here reports on a study commissioned by the Hamburg Environmental Office. Continue reading
“Human-Influenced Climate Change May Have Contributed to Society’s Collapse“
So, they increased the local albedo, cooled the surface and caused droughts… Okay. Cooling is known to be really bad for people and primary productivity. Continue reading
In the face of a changing climate many species must adapt or perish. Ecologists studying evolutionary responses to climate change forecast that cold-blooded tropical species are not as vulnerable to extinction as previously thought. The study, published in the British Ecological Society’s Functional Ecology, considers how fast species can evolve and adapt to compensate for a rise in temperature. Continue reading
CSIRO’s modeling exercise. What a pity they can’t forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, even though they are basing this PlayStation® climatology exercise on how El Niño affects regional circulation patterns. Despite proxy records indicating that the ENSO cycle is somewhat muted during warm episodes they’ve gone for the disaster headline, again.
Even worse, “A central issue for community adaptation in Australia and across the Pacific is understanding how the warming atmosphere and oceans will influence the intensity and frequency of extreme events.“
Seriously? “Will influence”? The biggest risk we face at present is the sun’s apparent somnolence and potential cooling for which seemingly no one is preparing for or hedging against even though we face a higher likelihood of cooling than warming. “… the warming atmosphere and oceans will influence … ” Sheesh! Continue reading
In the virtual realm: South Pacific Island nations to be hit by more droughts, floods and cyclones, warns CSIRO
Modelers seem to be drifting ever-further from physical reality. The one place where enhanced greenhouse effect can never be significant is the tropics because the atmosphere is already infrared opaque. You can’t close the same window twice, guys. Once it’s closed, it’s closed, end of story and the moist tropical atmosphere already blocks 100% of active GHG bandwidths. The extratropical and dry frigid zones are where enhanced greenhouse could have an effect but that will not significantly affect the tropics. Nothing about a reduced temperature gradient from tropics to poles suggests it can or would increase tropical cyclone activity. You can broaden the width of the moist tropics but you can’t make them more infrared-opaque than 100%, no matter how hard you lie with models. Continue reading
Yet another paper shows that the climate models have flaws, described as “gross” “severe” and “disturbing”. The direct effect of doubling CO2 is theoretically 3.7W per square meter. The feedbacks supposedly are 2 -3 times as strong (according to the IPCC). But some scientists are trying to figure out those feedbacks with models which have flaws in the order of 70W per square meter. (How do we find that signal in noise that’s up to 19 times larger?) Continue reading
George Hadley (1685 – 1768), an Age of Enlightenment citizen, lawyer and amateur meteorologist made a major contribution to climatology through an interest in the Trade Winds. Continue reading
More PlayStation® climatology. How tedious. Continue reading
According to the United Nations’ 2011 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects, global urban population is expected to gain more than 2.5 billion new inhabitants through 2050. Such sharp increases in the number of urban dwellers will require considerable conversion of natural to urban landscapes, resulting in newly developing and expanding megapolitan areas. Could climate impacts arising from built environment growth pose additional concerns for urban residents also expected to deal with impacts resulting from global climate change? Continue reading