Claim: Researchers create means to monitor anthropogenic global warming in real time

All you need to know is stated in this sentence:

Because of the hiatus, the raw data underestimate the greenhouse warming.

The media release is below.

###

Researchers create means to monitor anthropogenic global warming in real time
Study points to primacy of Pacific Ocean as a global climate force

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA – SAN DIEGO

A research team including a Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego climate scientist simulated in a computer model, for the first time, the realistic evolution of global mean surface temperature since 1900.

119870

In doing so, the researchers also created a new method by which researchers can measure and monitor the pace of anthropogenic global warming, finding that the contribution of human activities to warming in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean can be distinguished from natural variability.

Former Scripps researcher Yu Kosaka, now at the University of Tokyo, and Shang-Ping Xie, the Roger Revelle Chair in Environmental Science at Scripps, created the simulation by forcing sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific to follow the observed variability.

“The climate system includes naturally occurring cycles that complicate the measurement of global warming due to the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases,” said Xie. “We can isolate the anthropogenic warming by removing the internally generated natural variability.”

Climate policymakers have sought to limit the rise of global temperatures to 2° Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. That figure is considered a threshold beyond which society and natural systems are virtually assured of experiencing significant and dangerous instability. Scientists have estimated that the planet is already roughly 1° C warmer at the surface than before the Industrial Revolution.

The 2° C target was reaffirmed during the 2015 Conference of the Parties, known as COP21, that was held in Paris in December. Kosaka and Xie’s research could provide an easily generated and more accurate means to measure society’s success in keeping temperatures below that threshold.

The research is further confirmation of the primary importance of the Pacific in controlling global-scale climate that researchers have come to understand in recent decades. Kosaka and Xie plotted the rise of global mean temperatures over the past 120 years. The rise of temperatures ascends in a staircase fashion with the steps becoming larger over the past 50 years.

When Kosaka and Xie removed as a variable the natural warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean, the rise of global mean surface temperature became a more linear increase, one that began to accelerate more sharply in the 1960s. It had been natural Pacific decadal variations that temporarily slowed down or speeded up the warming trend, leading to the staircase pattern.

For example, global mean surface temperature has not changed much for 1998-2014, a time period known as the hiatus that has been tied to naturally occurring tropical Pacific cooling. Raw data show a warming of 0.9° C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900 while Kosaka and Xie’s calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2° C after correcting for the natural variability effect.

“Most of the difference between the raw data and new estimates is found during the recent 18 years since 1998,” said Xie. “Because of the hiatus, the raw data underestimate the greenhouse warming.”

Kosaka and Xie suggest that though Pacific Ocean trends are an essential variable control on global temperature rise, the accuracy of their warming estimate will be improved in the future as other climate modes are added as variables. An international initiative involving more than a dozen climate models is being planned to improve the estimates included in upcoming assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

###

The paper, “The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming,” appears in the journal Nature Geoscience.

9 thoughts on “Claim: Researchers create means to monitor anthropogenic global warming in real time”

  1. Let’s skip right over actually proving that humanity is affecting the change in average temps to any measurable degree and use another “model” to smear humanity in (un)real time!

  2. The troubled institution of science
    by curryja

    by Judith Curry

    “Is the point of research to make other professional academics happy, or is it to learn more about the world?” —Noah Grand, sociology professor, UCLA

    “Science, I had come to learn, is as political, competitive, and fierce a career as you can find, full of the temptation to find easy paths.” — Paul Kalanithi, neurosurgeon and writer (1977–2015)

    Read more of this post

  3. Lets skip over the fact that there is no fracking data for the oceans in those places for those years other than a handful of ship readings, further back you go less data there is, that temp record is fabricated from thin air, models and estimations

  4. Models aside, the entire thrust of this paper appears to be, “We made this accurate and complete true series of completely different projections, but reality intervened to crush all of them, apparently; however, by subtracting the average discrepancy between the models and the average much-doctored observations, we can prove that the difference is deceptive, because (we assert) we were absolutely right when we made the faulty predictions, even though our evidence is the discrepancy itself. Easy-peasy.” Any questions?

  5. Since when does raw data “underestimate” or “overestimate” anything?

    I thought raw data simply “is what it is”?

  6. I’m still lost on the process trail of how increasing taxes (by X) will reduce CO2 (by Y) thereby, reducing earth’s temperature (by Z) and preventing our planet’s catastrophic destruction (by A+B+C+…).
    Someone please fill in the variables.
    or
    Should I be asking how many millionaires will have to become billionaires thru carbon trading for this process to start?
    I’d love to know how all this works.
    What does this timeline look like?

  7. The models always fail because they ignore variables like the sun, volcanic activity, etc. These variables cannot be accurately predicted, so they must be ignored to come to the “correct” conclusion.

    They now admit this by stating: “We can isolate the anthropogenic warming by removing the internally generated natural variability.” Yes, ignore what nature is actually doing…brilliant, but fraudulent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.