New worries about barely studied long term sea level rise

Worried about sea levels in 4014?  IPCC scientists and researchers are.

Response to Climate Change has published a report about upcoming IPCC projections of long term sea level rise. The time periods we should get fuzzy with all the supposed data.  Sea level rise could be 2.3 meters for every 1°C rise in global temperature. Sea level rise long term could be 1.3 meters for the temperature already locked in. Near term sea level rise could be 0.8 meters by the end of the century.  Sea level rise could increase by 0.32 m for every decade of emissions at their current rate above the 1.3 meters already locked in. Sea level rise could be 4.8 meters long-term.  All this sea level rise could seriously impact coastal and low-lying areas.

Really scarey, visualizing the flooding of the coastal areas, the Netherlands and other areas.  The current sea level rise is about 8″/century or ~2 mm/year.  The 4.8 m in maybe 2,000 years is about the current rate of rise.  The guesstimate of 0.8 meters by the end of the century is 9.5 mm/year.  So, what’s the expected rise and when?  By scrambling all sorts of estimates and being vague about time periods the estimates cover, you can get really scarey stuff.

Climate stasis?  Sea level stasis?  Humans can’t adapt?  Our models have the future nailed?  Hardly even in science fiction.

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7 responses to “New worries about barely studied long term sea level rise

  1. We well may be in the next full ice by then and have large sea level declines

    • But they won’t decline as much as they were suppose to. What if CO2 caused the oceans to drop only 100 meters instead of 120 meters like last time we had a glacial period? :P

  2. Per Walter’s comment, anyone looked at the sea floor contour maps available in places like Google Earth, et cetera? Specifically, I’m fascinated by the areas off the continental shelves which show “riverbeds” and “deltas” and “floodplains” which not only line up with current river mouths, they are also now hundreds to thousands of feet below current sea level. Obviously, those were made at some point, the question is how? Be that as it may, the fact that the biosphere in general has dealt with massive sea level rise before seems to be pretty clear just from the current geologic record.

    Once again, we have an article which warns us that our climate might not be perfectly static, a condition which might cause harm and/or the need for human adaptation in the (distant) future.

    And once again I’m all like, “Well, like, duuhhh.

  3. Yesterday I was reading about fossil mammoth bones obtained by *dredging* in the North Sea. That fact alone tells volumes about long-term sea-level rise. The fact we can even discuss it means that the 15-36 meters rise that inundated the Dogger Bank *since* 10,000 years ago when it was all dry land has NOT been catastrophic for humanity – although the mammoths are gone, probably for other reasons.

  4. GuarionexSandoval

    I think by 4014 we will already be on our way to drastically lower sea levels for the next 100,000 years. Out of the past 450,000 years, there have been four glacial periods of about 70 to 90 thousand years in length separated by interglacial periods of between 10 to 30 thousand years. The interglacial periods occur at a time of peak solar radiation in the northern hemisphere summer about every fifth cycle of the precession of the equinox. Just eyeballing graphs (at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data2.html and http://geology.utah.gov/surveynotes/gladasked/gladice_ages.htm), it looks as though the last four glacial periods, especially the portions colder than 20F, have been successively longer and successively colder. Of the five interglacial periods, 4 have had a peak warmth greater than the current interglacial and 3 have had lengths of time at temperatures above 30F longer than the current one. As far as hopes by some of rising atmospheric CO2 levels forestalling the start of another glacial period: ha ha ha ha ha. Atmospheric CO2 levels have been falling for the past 150 million years from a high of over 2500 ppm to the present low amount that was reached only one time before throughout the past 500 million years during the Carboniferious and Permian periods over 300 million years ago. And considering that there have been extremely cold periods with extremely high levels of CO2 and extremely warm periods with extremely low levels of CO2, warmists shouldn’t hold out hope that the CO2 they’re railing against (weirdly so) will save us from the extreme cold of another glacial period.

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