Climategate 3.0: No consensus among the consensus

Tom Wigley dissents from Kevin Trenberth’s observation of no warming since 1998.

The e-mails are below.

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>>>> On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
>>>>> Dear all,
>>>>> At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the
>>>>> recent
>>>>> lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to
>>>>> look at
>>>>> the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic
>>>>> trend relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second
>>>>> is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the
>>>>> observed data.
>>>>> Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The
>>>>> second
>>>>> method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
>>>>> These sums complement Kevin’s energy work.
>>>>> Kevin says … “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack
>>>>> of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t”. I
>>>>> do not
>>>>> agree with this.
>>>>> Tom.
>>>>> +++++++++++++++++++++++
>>>>> Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>>>>> Hi all
>>>>>> Well I have my own article on where the heck is global
>>>>>> warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have
>>>>>> broken records the past two days for the coldest days on
>>>>>> record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days
>>>>>> was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the
>>>>>> previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F
>>>>>> and also a record low, well below the previous record low.
>>>>>> This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game
>>>>>> was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below
>>>>>> freezing weather).
>>>>>> Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change
>>>>>> planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. /Current Opinion in
>>>>>> Environmental Sustainability/, *1*, 19-27,
>>>>>> doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF]