Forecasting Climate With A Chance Of Backlash

“For [TV weathermen], the whole notion of projecting what the climate will be 30, 50, a hundred years from now, they’ve got a fairly high degree of skepticism.”



  1. This article makes TV weathermen seem like a bunch of rubes. Presumably climatologists have the insight on forecasting 50-100 years out, then. But the reality is that there IS NO SCIENCE of skillful forecasting of the weather/climate…. at least not more than a couple of weeks out.. The IPCC TAR describes the atmosphere as a “….loosely couple, non-linear, chaotic system.” That means …. unpredictable, no?

    Weathermen actually have improved their predictive skills over the years and do a fair job for up to 10 days out, or so. That’s because air cell momentum vectors can be projected that far out before being overwhelmed by the atmosphere’s dominant chaotic factors.

  2. If, as a lieutenant, your sergeant tells you that an order will lead to disaster, listen to him. He knows more about being on the field than you.

    If, as an engineer, a grizzled old operator comes up and tells you that your cockamany idea has about as much chance of working as a squirrel against his shotgun, listen to him. He’s spit tobacco on more places in the plant than you’ve even laid eyes on.

    If the rank and file of people who actually deal with the process at hand believe something to be odd, ackward, or downright stupid. Listen to them. 90% of the time, they are right.


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