More computer modeling from MIT

MIT is trying to sell (“pursuing partnerships”) to policy makers and city planners a new computer modeling tool they say will project the effects of climate change on communities. In their press release, researchers with MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change say that Hurricane Sandy is a glimpse of what will happen in the future of the world as it becomes more vulnerable to climate change.

New method could help communities plan for climate risk

…MIT researchers have developed a new tool to help policymakers, city planners and others see the possible local effects of climate change. Its regional projections of climate trends — such as long-term temperature and precipitation changes — allow local planners to evaluate risks, and how these risks could shape crops, roads and energy infrastructure.

“As we see more extreme events like Sandy, the importance of assessing regional impacts grows,” says lead researcher Adam Schlosser, assistant director for science research at MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. “Our approach helps decision- and policymakers balance the risks … so they can better prepare their communities for future impacts climate change might bring.”…

In this new method, the researchers quantify the likelihood of particular outcomes and add socioeconomic data, different emission levels and varying degrees of uncertainty. Their technique combines climate-model projections and analysis from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework. The MIT framework is itself a combined computer model that integrates an economic, human system with a natural, earth system.

Their initial study, published in the Journal of Climate, created a scenario of lowering emissions that they said reduced the odds of regional warming and precipitation changes. “In fact, for many places, the likelihood of the most extreme warming from the business-as-usual case could be eliminated almost entirely.”

Junkscience readers may enjoy reading the description of their computer model from the study abstract:

Herein, we present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2-D atmospheric model of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate-model projections archived from exercises carried out for the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and we demonstrate this approach in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which highquality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, we characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate-model projections. This hybridization of the climate-model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.

Got all that?

9 responses to “More computer modeling from MIT

  1. What unmitigated nonsense. It’s a process model, it can’t be used to “project” anything. The output of any software model is suspect until it has been verified and validated, and this model has not. The common refrain from warmists is that you can’t criticize their “science” if you are not a climatologist, however they have no problem with these climatologists writing complex software. I’d like to see their software engineering credentials.

  2. Meteorologist William Gray is probably the world’s most famous hurricane expert. At Colorado State University. He pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting, and in a 2005 Discover Magazine interview he stated that if there is global warming that it is causing such a small part of climate change that it is negligible and attributes changes we have seen to ocean circulation changes and notes that it is not human induced.

  3. It seems that we’ve lost the battle. The CAGW ghouls have captured all the people’s minds and facts are not to be considered that get in the way of policy.

  4. Sic transit gloria MIT.

  5. The effect on climate change will be that the cities are poorer because they bought the model and it will have no effect on the local climate

  6. “allow local planners to evaluate risks”?
    Local planners can only evaluate one thing – the money to be made by developing land, preferably unpurchased land (Kelo vs. City of New London).

  7. You would get the practical outcomes if you did disaster planning usuing 500 year flood and drought models, said that we should prepare for the worst case and told local planners to develop an emergency response plan and upgrade infrastructure. However, MIT wouldn’t make as much money and there would be fewer grant opportunities.

  8. Smarter than he average voter

    Another great way to launder that grant money! the “economists” strike again.

  9. Our computer models can link storms and hurricanes to global warming with 100% accurancy once they occur and we go back through and change the program parameters to make it so. ~ MIT

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