Back in the virtual realm: Climate models that predict more droughts win further scientific support

More PlayStation® climatology. How tedious.

The United States will suffer a series of severe droughts in the next two decades, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Moreover, global warming will play an increasingly important role in their abundance and severity, claims Aiguo Dai, the study’s author.

His findings bolster conclusions from climate models used by researchers around the globe that have predicted severe and widespread droughts in coming decades over many land areas. Those models had been questioned because they did not fully reflect actual drought patterns when they were applied to conditions in the past. However, using a statistical method with data about sea surface temperatures, Dai, a climate researcher at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research, found that the model accurately portrayed historic climate events.

“We can now be more confident that the models are correct,” Dai said, “but unfortunately, their predictions are dire.”

WaPo

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One response to “Back in the virtual realm: Climate models that predict more droughts win further scientific support

  1. Hydrology is perhaps the worst modeled phenomenon in global climate models. So it seems dubious that these computer systems have any credibility in predicting rainfall. And of course global rainfall should go up if the planet warms, simply because 70% of the surface of Earth is water. But this says nothing about droughts, which have nothing to do with warming be rather with where the wind allows the clouds to go. It seems thusly doubly dubious these climate models will provide anything of use in predicted drought.

    Are these the same models that can’t predict weather out more than 15 days or so? Are these the same models that assume 2/3 – 80% of the alleged warming in the future will due to unproved and unobserved positive water vapor feedbacks? Are any of these guys meteorologists?

    I found it odd that it seems they based their conclusions on presumed SST increases…. to come up with presumed droughts OVER LAND!!! I’m not a meteorologist, but I’d like to understand the logic there.

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