From some fairly simple physics you’d expect this to be true but the simple facts are we do not know what negative feedbacks really apply. The water vapor feedback just does not seem to operate in the real world.
The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall impact the lives of more than one billion people. A review in Nature Climate Change (June 24 online issue) of over 100 recent research articles concludes that with continuing rise in CO2 and global warming, the region can expect generally more rainfall, due to the expected increase in atmospheric moisture, as well as more variability in rainfall.
In spite of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 70 parts per million by volume and in global temperatures of about 0.50°C over the last 6 decades, the All India Rainfall index does not yet show the expected increase in rainfall. The reviewers Andrew Turner from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading and H. Annamalai from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa give several reasons for why the region’s observed rainfall has not yet increased, among them are inconsistent rainfall observations, decadal variability of the monsoon, the effects of aerosols resulting from industrialization, and land-use changes.
Regional projections for devastating droughts and floods–which are most meaningful for residents living in South Asia– are still beyond the reach of current climate models, according to the reviewers’ detailed analyses of the present state of research. The authors conclude that in order to make regional projections that can help in disaster mitigation and in adapting to climate change, the following is needed: establishing more consistent rainfall datasets by expanding observations to include, for example, agricultural yield; a better grasp of the complicated thermodynamics over the monsoon region and of the interactions among monsoon rainfall, land-use, aerosols, CO2, and other conditions; and an evaluation in coupled circulation models (which allow feedbacks among variables) of those processes that have been shown in simpler models to affect the monsoon and rainfall.
“The authors conclude that in order to make regional projections that can help in disaster mitigation and in adapting to climate change, the following is needed:”
More money.
How do regional projections help in disaster mitigation? What is disaster mitigation? Is this throwing away 100-year flood data and using climate change model data instead, like they tried in NC?
“Regional projections for devastating droughts and floods–which are most meaningful for residents living in South Asia– are still beyond the reach of current climate models.”
Was the lead author of the report Captain Obvious? What changes if models DO project devastating droughts and [ordinary?] floods? After spending millions of dollars, they have determined that South Asia will have more floods and droughts, but they still don’t know which decade – or century – they will occur in. Your tax dollars at work.
Everything useful is well beyond the reach of climate models, so long as they start from completely invalid assumptions. This has never been about predicting climate or helping anyone. This is about redistributing money from useful activities that might really help the world’s poor to the greedy NGOs and climate activists. And of course, justifying genocide to get the world the activists want.