About a year ago on this blog, I offered some skeptical commentary about the gloomy testimony of Dr. Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science, who warned the House Energy & Commerce Committee that global warming would inflict major losses on U.S. corn crop production unless scientists develop varieties with improved heat resistance.
I noted that long-term U.S. corn production was increasing, including in areas where average summer temperatures exceed 84°F, the threshold beyond which corn yields fall, according to Field.
Well, this just in, courtesy of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA): USDA projects the U.S. corn crop for 2012 to reach 14.79 billion bushels, the biggest ever. RFA’s objective, of course, is not to debunk climate alarm, but to assure us that we can have our corn (ethanol) and eat it too. Nonetheless, the numbers are mighty impressive and indicate that, in this decade at least, U.S. corn farmers are more than a match for climate change. From RFA’s briefing memo:
14.79 billion bushels doesn’t actually mean much, other than we can grow a lot of corn. I guess it proves our production isn’t in crisis…
An additional metric like the average yield per acre (especially in areas where its warmer) would be needed to refute the notion that heat causes smaller yields. For example: Heat could reduce some yields by 1% but we plant 2% more acerage so overall yields increase. Lots of other factors to control for to actually have a meaningful measurement.