Variations in ozone in the lower stratosphere could be the main reason for the global warming seen in the past few decades, according to a new paper in press at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It is claimed that the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature variability.
Nataliya Kilifarska of the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, in Sofia, Bulgaria, presents a powerful analysis that confirms a strong relationship between stratospheric ozone and land air temperature.
She says that this highly significant relation raises the question about the nature of the influence, and suggests that it operates through control over the temperature and humidity in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere by ozone variations. The ozone variability itself is initiated by variations in Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity, which produces O3 at these levels. GCRs are in turn mediated by the Sun. An important point is that the high effectiveness of this mechanism is due to the fact that small fluctuations of the H2O vapour (in the most arid regions of the troposphere) influences the radiation balance of Earth in a highly non-linear way meaning small changes in the Sun results in a big change in Earth’s temperature.