Variations in ozone in the lower stratosphere could be the main reason for the global warming seen in the past few decades, according to a new paper in press at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It is claimed that the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature variability.
Nataliya Kilifarska of the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, in Sofia, Bulgaria, presents a powerful analysis that confirms a strong relationship between stratospheric ozone and land air temperature.
She says that this highly significant relation raises the question about the nature of the influence, and suggests that it operates through control over the temperature and humidity in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere by ozone variations. The ozone variability itself is initiated by variations in Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity, which produces O3 at these levels. GCRs are in turn mediated by the Sun. An important point is that the high effectiveness of this mechanism is due to the fact that small fluctuations of the H2O vapour (in the most arid regions of the troposphere) influences the radiation balance of Earth in a highly non-linear way meaning small changes in the Sun results in a big change in Earth’s temperature.
This makes perfect sense. The troposphere is the region of the atmosphere nearer to the ground, where convection dominates all heat exchanges so the effects like GH are immaterial.
Any change in the stratosphere will instead be radiation-caused.
Well, since the globe is not warming, the stratosphere is not causing warming.
The question is: “What does the *data* say about ozone variations, temperature variations, and humidity variations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere?”
‘the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature’ why are you deniers now using climate models? When up to now you have claimed they are frauds!
David, before sledging ‘deniers’ please learn something about their position.
Specifically skeptics are skeptical of the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming hysteria – i.e. most will be happy to talk to you about trombe wall effect, urban heat islands, land use change – all manner of changes to the local environment which provide evidence of at least local and regional anthropogenic climate effects/change. The hysterical disaster prognostication is another matter entirely.
On models you’ll find plenty of support for models, just not the misuse of process models to predict outcomes in a coupled chaotic non-linear system like climate. You’ll find plenty of readers here use models regularly for engineering, hydraulics, chemistry and so on and know their limits intimately.
Now wait a minute… Wouldn’t this mechanism predict a greater warming over the tropics at upper trop/lower strat altitudes because there is more moisture present? (The ozone causes slight warming allowing more water vapor in the air causing greater warming)
I thought the climate models were predicting this and there is no evidence for it. Grrr, have to go find the old articles now.