Define “no major impact”
A “clean energy standard” as drafted by a leading US senator to boost low-emission generation while decreasing coal-fired power would not impose significant impacts on electricity prices until after 2020, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration.
On average, the projected end-use electricity price under the CES would exceed EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 reference case by less than 4% in 2025 but by as much as 18% by 2035, EIA said.
Price increases would occur post-2020 when compliance with the CES “becomes less a matter of using natural gas and biomass at existing facilities, and more a matter of requiring investment in new combined-cycle, renewable, and nuclear capacity,” the analysis said.
If enacted, the CES would decrease coal-fired generation below the EIA reference case by 25% in 2025 and by 54% in 2035 while boosting natural gas-fired electricity by 13% in 2020. But by 2035, natural gas generation would be up by only 8%, as other low-emission resources increase capacity under the standard, the analysis said.