Roger Pielke Sr.: Comment On “Levitus Data On Ocean Forcing Confirms Skeptics, Falsifies IPCC” At Niche Modeling

There is an interesting post on the significance of the Levitus et al 2012 paper

Levitus, S., et al. (2012), World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000), 1955-2010Geophys. Res. Lett.,doi:10.1029/2012GL051106, in press 

that I posted on in

Comment On Ocean Heat Content “World Ocean Heat Content And Thermosteric Sea Level Change (0-2000), 1955-2010″ By Levitus Et Al 2012

This new post is on Niche Modeling and is titled

Levitus data on ocean forcing confirms skeptics, falsifies IPCC 

While, the lower diagnosed value of radiative imbalance raises questions on the skill of the models (and the IPCC reliance on them), it is important to distinguish between the three terms radiative imbalance, radiative forcing, and radiative feedback.  In terms of global averages their relationship can be written as

global radiative imbalance =  global radiative forcing + global radiative feedback.

The Levitus et al 2012 data provides a measure of the global average radiative imbalance for 1955-2010 which is ~+0.3 Watts per meter squared.

If one accepts the IPCC radiative forcing values of anthropogenic radiative forcings of +1.6 (+0.6 to +2.4) Watts per meter squared and/or the solar radiative forcing of +0.12 (+0.06 to +0.30) Watts per meter squared as correct, what the Levitus et al data shows is that the global radiative feedback is negative(and this necessarily would include the water vapor, sea ice etc radiative feedbacks). That is

global radiative feedback  <  global radiative forcing.

Alternatively, the IPCC anthropogenic radiative forcings  and/or the solar radiative forcing could be in error.

Either way, the 2007 IPCC WG1 report has a serious error in it.

Roger Pielke Sr.

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