In a previous post, I explained that many of the climate-extremists’ commonest arguments are instances of logical fallacies codified by Aristotle in his Sophistical Refutations 2300 years ago. Not the least of these is the argumentum ad populum, the consensus or head-count fallacy.
The fallacy of reliance upon consensus, particularly when combined with theargumentum ad verecundiam, the fallacy of appealing to the authority or reputation of presumed experts, is more likely than any other to mislead those who have not been Classically trained in mathematical or in formal logic.
To the Classicist, an argument founded upon any of the Aristotelian logical fallacies is defective a priori. Nothing more need be said about it. However, few these days are Classicists. Accordingly, in this post I propose to explain mathematically why there can be no legitimate consensus about the answer to the central scientific question in the climate debate: how much warming will occur by 2100 as a result of our sins of emission?
There can be no consensus because all of the key parameters in the fundamental equation of climate sensitivity are unknown and unknowable. Not one can be directly measured, indirectly inferred, or determined by any theoretical method to a precision sufficient to give us a reliable answer.
I’m repeating a post on WUWT, but it is on topic, and I hope the cross-polinization doesn’t irritate readers here!
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A wonderfully refreshing piece, Lord Monckton! I am in the process of framing the following insightful statement, sourced from J N-G, the esteemed Texas State Climatologist, who reminded me that:
“There are lots of things wrong with existing models, so finding something else wrong with them will not get you very far unless you can demonstrate the importance of the shortcoming.”
Setting aside outright data manipulation, of which I personally know you are aware, my mathematical background compels me to remind people that multiplying one uncertainty by another uncertainty, and then taking their product and multiplying it against another set of uncertainly derived products, cannot provide reliable information.
Narrowing some factors within decent zones of probability gives the appearance of rigor, but “geo-engineering” public policy to account for those multiples of uncertainty taken to many higher powers is the essence of malfeasance, particularly when some of the claimed effects just aren’t there. Now the following isn’t definitive by any means, but should give some pause to policymakers in the process of squandering trillions of our world’s currencies:
http://www.colderside.com/Colderside/Temp_%26_CO2.html
Your willingness to continue public discourse on this topic is totally refreshing, and much appreciated!!!
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Monckton’s article was brilliant. The comments after the article were spot on. I feel wiser for this experience.
Thank you.
The principle is as old as time itself ‘Two wrongs can never add up to one right’