“In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the world contained only 60 billion barrels of recoverable oil. But to date we have produced more than 1,000 billion barrels and currently have more than 1,500 billion barrels in reserve. World petroleum reserves are at an all-time high.” -newsok
For over 150 years, “knowledgeable insiders” have been predicting the end of oil. Over that time period, oil has endured multiple cycles of boom and bust, with high and very high oil prices alternating with low and very low oil prices. High oil prices — if they are sustained over several years without a “price bust” — lead to increased exploration and improved technologies for production.
Al Fin h/t Tom Nelson
The “Peak Oil Future” is a different idea than the “Running Out of Oil Future”. It’s not about volume, it’s about rate. That’s why it’s called a “Peak”, and not the “End”. In other words we can’t produce enough to sustain the economy and the world. Yes we will have oil, but not for all of us. Essentially the floating surplus that keeps the game going will evaporate and we will turn into a world where 7 billion people will want the very next barrel of oil coming out of the ground. It will be the end of cheap oil and the world will collapse.
When we think of the discoveries like off the coast of Brazil, they all sound so promising(15 Billion Barrels of Oil). Unfortunately the world uses 31.3 billion barrels a year so a discovery of 15 billion would only last a half a year. That’s if we could pump it fast enough, which we can’t. Even Saudi Arabia can’t do that from dry land.
When we think of oil, we picture the gas tank analogy. When the needle reaches E for empty is when we are in trouble. The world does in fact have a trillion barrels of oil left to produce. The real analogy is like a Pearl Harbor reconnaissance plane flying its mission over the ocean. The plane flies as far as it can for as high as it can. The pilot fulfils the mission of aerial photography of enemy positions. At a certain point though the pilot knows he must turn around at the HALF WAY point of the gas gauge to make it back home. When the needle reaches at half the tank the pilot MUST RETREAT and DESCEND to make it back to base. When the world has produced as much oil as it ever can in one day (peaked), when it has flown as far as it can for as high as it can the world economy MUST RETREAT and DESCEND.
And how do coal-to-liquids and methane supplies figure in your calculations? Is your PSR (point of safe return) before or after human populations age and decline, along with demand?
Coal to liquids and Methane are non-issues. They won’t change anything. The predominant timeline of peak oil will not be changed because of an alternative supply of a trickle of energy. We PUMP 31.3 billions barrels a year. Pumping energy has always been easier then growing grass/corn or mining coal and tar sands. In fact, the aggregate of all methods: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear, and Tidal energy will not delay Peak Oil much more than a couple weeks to a year at best. The reason why is because everything uses oil, even the Hydro, Wind, Solar and Tidal Energy. They are all made using oil.
The analogy was to show again that it’s not about volume, it’s about the rate of usage. The point of safe return could be changed by a radical and immediate reduction of population(say 25% of the earth). In terms of self restraint, the world does not possess the collective, political will or the viable means to change course. Eventually there will not be a safe return unless we don’t fly planes(like the analogy) and we don’t use oil.
Its easy to confuse demand, speculators, technology, and politics with this issue but ultimately it’s about…..the oil geology.
Sorry, I have rather more faith in human
greedneed driving innovation. Here in Queensland alone we have hundreds of billions, if not trillions of BoE in coal and gas. Almost one-third of Australia overlies coal beds which no one is currently interested in because they are not conveniently located near population centers (Australia is basically a big empty space except for the well-watered eastern coastal littoral) and/or they are below hot saline aquifers which would be an extraction nuisance. For the right price that too will join the global energy supply train. So too will the oil and gas resources beneath the GBR lagoon (greenies are a bit testy about extracting those), Carpentaria Basin and Northern littoral. Your ‘peak oil’ is really more a balance of fiscal and political price. As people are forced to pay unacceptable prices for their energy Disney characterizations of clown fish recede in the scale of importance. Europe, for example, is not short of coal, Europeans currently just don’t want to use it.I hope Queensland does develop their coal resources. It is true that Coal use is in decline in America. Our natural gas has really taken off. Thanks. Keep Blogging. Keep Writing.