Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early

Honest experts: say a look back shows their past 20 years of [early] forecasts had no predictive value.

If widely acclaimed experts cannot skillfully predict extreme weather likelihood 6-12 months in advance what does that tell you about the hysterical claims of the modeling fraternity about periods 50-100 years hence?

Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable
Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.

Colorado State has been known for decades for forecasts of how many named storms and hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.)

Last week, the pair made this announcement:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

The two will still make the traditional forecasts closer to hurricane season.

An earlier version of this story incorrectly said they were stopping all forecasts. (Ottawa Citizen) –h/t Gregory Ludvigsen

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2 responses to “Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early

  1. Just more of mans arrogance – here in NZ we have had so many ‘so called’ experts advising us about Earthquakes and volcanoes and their puny attempts at predicting them – – just ask the citizens of Christchurch (NZ South Islands major city) – a bit like the puzzle as to why clairvoyants never win the big lottery – what you can do with weather is look at the trends of the past and just maybe get some idea of trends in the future but even that is tenuous

  2. This is refreshing. But, when you consider, even climate scientists must get discouraged after so many years of failed prognostications. These guys have been forecasting highly active hurricane seasons for the past five years, and missed every year. For 2011 they forecast a significantly above average hurricane season. What did we have? Six hurricanes vs. the 150-year average of 8.2 (according to NOAA’s website data). Nine hurricanes was the stated average in the forecast.

    And of the six recorded hurricanes, a couple lasted less than 24 hours, and some would never have made it to the record books in the late Nineteenth and early Twentieth Centuries.

    They are a bit like the economists who have forecast six of the last four recessions.

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