… and craps out.
NASA’s James Hansen has a new essay on his web site called “Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice“, in which he argues that unless global warming is slowed there will be more extreme weather events.
His argument goes like this:
- Extreme temperatures are more common now than during the period 1951-1980.
- Fossil fuel emissions are increasing.
- Increasing emissions will cause more global warming (i.e., “loading the dice”) and extreme temperatures.
- Therefore, we need to put a price on carbon “if we are to preserve life as we know it.”
The problem of course is that Hansen assumes that temperatures are driven by CO2. He offers no scientific evidence of this phenomenon — he just assumes that it goes without saying.
People who deny the global warming cause of these extreme events usually offer instead a meteorological “explanation”. For example, it is said that the Moscow heat wave was caused by an atmospheric “blocking” situation, or the Texas heat wave was caused by La Nina ocean temperature patterns.
Wrong. We say there is no evidence that atmospheric CO2 levels have any discernible role in weather events.
Expect to hear more of the “loaded dice” analogy — in some ways it’s an appropriate one.
“Loaded dice” are used by con artists — like anyone we know?