Texas needs a new climatologist

The global warming-believing state climatologist for Texas says that the 2011 drought could last until 2020. But how does he know? The answer is astonishing.

As reported by the Associated Press:

State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon tells the Austin American-Statesman says water planning is often based on standards set by the previous record drought of the 1950s, which lasted nearly 10 years. Nielsen-Gammon, who also is a Texas A&M professor of atmospheric sciences, says the present drought could be significantly longer-lasting than what has been planned for.

And what’s Nielsen-Gammon’s line of thinking?

He says that, “sooner or later, there will be a drought that’s worse” than the previous standard-setter.

While “sooner or later” may work in pop songs (see video below), it hardly constitutes scientific thinking and isn’t even really very good probabilistic thinking.

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9 responses to “Texas needs a new climatologist

  1. How about that crazy guy, Tom Cruise?

  2. Sooner or later the State of Texas will return to being an inland sea with big, nasty sharks at the top of the food chain! How is that for logically and scientifically equivalent prognostication. Isn’t that easier to take than chaotic reality? Is this nonsense what people really want to hear? I wonder!

  3. he has no degree in climatology….

  4. He should have said “I don’t know” and left it at that.

  5. John Nielsen-Gammon is a ‘meteorologist’ at Texas A&M. He can tell what is going to happen for the next 3 days with about 75% accuracy, and 5 days with about 50% accuracy. He is not infrequently surprised by weather changes over a few hours.
    Weather records have been collected in Texas for about 200 years, and the likelihood that a new event should fall outside the range of the historical precedents set over that long a period is about 1/2 of a percent.
    As they say at the University of Texas, “Flush twice, it’s a long way to A&M.”

  6. Arthur: There are two, three-word phrases that environmentalists must never utter, ever! They are “We don’t know” and “We were wrong.”

  7. Allen: If that is true, then where are the real environmentalists? Perhaps they just shoved them in a vat of Agent Orange!

  8. false prophets, the weather channel can’t get it accurate more than a few days in advance, so how in the world can anyone be so arrogant to believe they have godlike powers of predictions.? texas is west of the mississippi which is a low rainfal over all area, furthur southwest you go the less rain you get, in fact I never thought about it but is ti true that los angeles is actually a desert? they need lots of water there to keep it blooming if that is true. the futhur northwest or northeast you go the more rain, believe me you texas can have some of the rain we have been having this past month. where is the sunshine of my life!
    rosa

  9. >rosa: The definition of ‘desert’ I learned in ecology class back in about ’62 was ‘any region that averages less than 10 inches (25 cm) of rainfall annually.’ By that measure L.A. is already a desert. When I lived in Amarillo, TX in the 80’s and 90’s, I charted about 125 years’ worth of rainfall records there (High Plains region) and found a trend that will have the region becoming technically a desert in about 2100, give or take 20 years.
    West Texas hasn’t seen a ‘damp’ climate since the Rocky Mountains rose.

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